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CNN Analysis Examines What Happens If Republicans Outperform September Polls in Midterms
Overview
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten and UVA Center for Politics director Larry Sabato discuss the reliability of September polling ahead of the midterm elections. While current polls favor Democrats in key Senate and House races, historical trends from 2018 and 2024 show that Republicans frequently outperform their September polling numbers by at least five points in states like Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa. Sabato also unveils new midterm forecasts, shifting several races toward Democrats while noting significant Republican fundraising advantages and challenges for GOP candidates attempting to distance themselves from Donald Trump.
Key points
- In past election cycles like 2018 and 2024, Republicans consistently outperformed their September polling margins in key Midwestern states by at least five points.
- If historical polling errors repeat, Republican outperformance in states like Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa could result in a 50/50 Senate with a tiebreaking vote.
- Larry Sabato's updated midterm forecast shows a drift toward Democrats, shifting four House races and leaning toward Democratic wins in several key contests.
- Republicans maintain a major fundraising and spending advantage, such as significant investments in competitive races like Texas, but face headwinds from Donald Trump remaining the center of attention.
- Efforts by some Republican candidates to localize races and distance themselves from the White House are complicated by Donald Trump's unwillingness to cooperate.