Understand
Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost
Overview
As Americans prepare to vote in the November midterm elections, the ruling Republican Party faces significant challenges due to President Donald Trump's low approval ratings and voter concerns over the cost of living and a conflict with Iran. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate are currently controlled by Republicans by narrow margins, giving Democrats a strong opportunity to win majorities in Congress. However, Republicans maintain a substantial financial advantage, outspending Democrats significantly on advertising as the parties battle in closely contested districts and states.
Key points
- Americans head to the polls on 3 November 2026 to vote in midterm elections that will determine control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
- President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen into the 30s, bolstered by dissatisfaction over the cost of living and the impact of military conflict with Iran.
- The Republicans hold a very narrow majority in the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election, with analysts classifying 21 districts as toss-ups.
- In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats while Democrats have 45 and two independents, with only seven out of 35 contested seats considered toss-ups.
- Democrats are targeting key races including competitive Senate seats in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
- Key issues for voters include the cost of living, healthcare, and immigration.
- Republicans hold a major financial advantage, with the Republican National Committee and allied groups holding over $600m compared to the Democrats' under $400m, alongside substantial funds from Trump's MAGA Inc group.