Understand
BBC Verify analysis compares the impact of the Ukraine and Iran wars on global diesel prices
Overview
An analysis by BBC Verify examines whether the conflict in Ukraine or the war with Iran is having a greater impact on global diesel prices and supplies. The figures indicate that while both conflicts have substantially reduced global diesel exports, the decline in supplies from the Gulf states due to the US-Iran war has been slightly greater than the reduction from Russian exports caused by Ukrainian strikes on refineries.
Key points
- US President Donald Trump blamed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries for global diesel export reductions and price spikes.
- Others attribute the supply shortage to the US-Israel war with Iran, which has cut refined fuel exports from the Gulf region.
- Global diesel exports fell from around 6.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to 5.8 million barrels per day in September 2026.
- Russian diesel exports dropped by around 670,000 barrels per day due to Ukrainian strikes on refineries.
- Middle Eastern diesel exports from Gulf states fell by around 730,000 barrels per day (from 1.4 million to 670,000 barrels per day) due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from the US-Iran war.
- Analysts note that while the conflict with Iran has caused a larger drop in export volumes, both wars are significantly impacting global energy markets.